Houthi forces have consolidated control over Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, extending their reach to the strategically vital Bab al-Mandeb Strait, marking a significant escalation in their rapid offensive. This territorial gain, solidified on Friday, places the Iran-aligned militia in a commanding position over a crucial global maritime chokepoint.
The capture of the port city of Mocha on Thursday represented a substantial blow to the Yemeni government, which is supported by a Saudi-led coalition. This latest advance by the Houthis is being hailed by analysts as the most consequential regional development since the United States and Israel declared war on Iran earlier this year, a conflict that has already destabilized energy markets and geopolitical alliances.
The implications of the Houthi territorial expansion are particularly acute for Saudi Arabia and its oil exports. The group, which had previously declared a blockade on Saudi-flagged vessels in the Red Sea, now possesses a far more robust grip on the Bab al-Mandeb waterway. This strait has become increasingly critical for Riyadh’s oil shipments, especially following disruptions and potential blockades of the Strait of Hormuz at the entrance to the Persian Gulf.
The Escalating Conflict in Yemen
Yemen has been embroiled in a devastating civil war since 2014, when Houthi rebels seized the capital city of Sanaa and the key port of Hodeidah, displacing the internationally recognized government. Backed by Iran, the Houthi movement has been in protracted conflict with a coalition of Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia, which intervened in 2015 to restore the Yemeni government and counter Iranian influence.
While a United Nations-brokered truce in 2022 provided a temporary respite, intermittent clashes have persisted. A renewed and intense wave of fighting erupted last week, characterized by Houthi assaults aimed at capturing the Red Sea coast, prompting a counter-offensive from Yemeni government forces. This renewed aggression has now culminated in the Houthis securing the entire coastline.
The Houthi offensive in July, occurring amidst the broader US-Iran conflict, saw the group announce a complete maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia and initiate attacks on Saudi-linked ships transiting the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. This narrow strait is one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes, connecting the Suez Canal and the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. An estimated 12 percent of global trade passes through this waterway daily. The importance of Bab al-Mandeb has grown exponentially since Iran’s actions led to reduced shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, which previously handled approximately 20 percent of the world’s annual energy supplies before the current conflict.
Houthi Gains and Saudi Arabia’s Vulnerability
The Houthis’ complete control over the Bab al-Mandeb corridor poses a significant threat to global energy security and could exacerbate the ongoing energy crisis. Experts warn of potential increases in oil prices and disruptions to supply chains. For Saudi Arabia, this development could lead to a further severe impact on its oil exports.
Following Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has increasingly relied on its East-West Crude Oil Pipeline. This pipeline, operational since the 1980s, transports oil from the Abqaiq oil field across the Arabian Peninsula to the western Red Sea port of Yanbu, allowing for maritime shipment via the Red Sea route, bypassing the Persian Gulf. The pipeline, built to circumvent disruptions at Hormuz, was temporarily shut down in 2019 due to Houthi drone attacks.
Since the outbreak of the war in February, Saudi Arabia has ramped up the pipeline’s capacity to its maximum of seven million barrels per day, an increase from five million barrels per day prior to the conflict. Consequently, 21 percent more Saudi oil is now being shipped through Bab al-Mandeb compared to the pre-war period. The Houthis’ expanded control along the Yemeni coast and over Bab al-Mandeb directly jeopardizes these vital export routes.
The Houthis have already demonstrated their capability by targeting Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and have previously launched attacks on Saudi energy installations and southern cities. Reports emerged on Friday of smoke rising from the East-West pipeline, though Saudi authorities have not yet confirmed any direct hits.
Iran’s Strategic Advantage
Analysts suggest that the Houthi’s territorial gains are designed to open a new major front in the broader US-Iran conflict, effectively providing Tehran with a significant strategic advantage in its ongoing standoff with Washington. Both Iran and the United States have asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz, but reduced shipping volumes indicate that Iran currently holds a more influential position. The Houthi proxy control of Bab al-Mandeb further strengthens Iran’s strategic leverage.
"It essentially means Iran now controls the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Hormuz plus," stated Alam Saleh, a professor of international relations at the Australian National University. This control amplifies pressure on the United States, especially as rising petrol and food prices have fueled public discontent, potentially influencing voter sentiment in the upcoming November midterm elections.
President Donald Trump has acknowledged the unlikelihood of the war concluding before the midterms, suggesting a critical timeframe for shifting the geopolitical dynamics in favor of Washington. While the US has pursued a strategy of combined strikes and economic pressure against Tehran, time is becoming a critical factor. Saleh noted that the Houthi victory not only shifts the power balance significantly in Iran’s favor but also signals to other global powers, such as China and Russia, that American military influence in the Middle East is diminishing. "Iran has now played the card of global oil prices and energy security. So the Houthis controlling Bab al-Mandeb benefits Iran dramatically," he added.
Can the Houthis Sustain Control of the Red Sea?
Despite their recent successes, the question of whether the Houthis can effectively control and sustain a blockade of the Red Sea, particularly the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, remains a subject of debate among experts. The Yemeni government forces, estimated at 300,000 personnel, face internal divisions and external pressure from Saudi Arabia, creating a fragmented front that struggles to match the agility of the Houthi forces, numbering around 250,000.
"I would say that this is a fighting force that is probably more advanced than the force that the Saudis were fighting against about a decade ago," remarked Mohamad Elmasry, a professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, referring to the Houthis’ military capabilities. Access to Iranian weaponry, including advanced missiles, drones, and air defense systems, has enabled the Houthis to build a formidable arsenal.
However, Andreas Krieg, an associate professor at King’s College London, cautioned that while the Houthis have achieved significant territorial gains, their capacity for effective governance is questionable, suggesting they may struggle to maintain a sustained blockade of Bab al-Mandeb. Krieg attributed their recent advances not to underestimation by opponents but rather to an overestimation of the capabilities of the Saudi-backed coalition.
Saleh of the Australian National University offered a nuanced perspective, highlighting that the Houthis do not necessarily need absolute control of Bab al-Mandeb or the entire Red Sea to achieve their strategic objectives. Even the perceived threat of disruption can be sufficient to deter shipping companies and insurance firms from navigating the strait, thus achieving their desired impact.
The immediate challenge for Saudi Arabia lies in its ability to counter the Houthi threat through its air power. Recent Saudi airstrikes, including dozens of missiles directed at Houthi-controlled areas like Mocha, have thus far failed to halt the group’s momentum.
Furthermore, a recently formed defense pact between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey is unlikely to be activated in this specific conflict, as these nations appear hesitant to escalate the US-Iran war. U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly declined a request from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for American airstrikes against the Houthis, indicating a reluctance from Washington to engage directly in this theater of the broader conflict.
