Three years into a devastating civil war, Sudan faces a catastrophic crisis marked by staggering human and economic losses, with experts warning of the "systematic erosion of a country’s future." The conflict, which erupted in April 2023 from a power struggle between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has rendered vast swathes of the nation unrecognizable, leaving over 40,000 people dead and forcing approximately 14 million – a quarter of the population – to abandon their homes. Civilian infrastructure across the country has been extensively damaged, crippling essential services and economic activity.
Luca Renda, the United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP) resident representative in Sudan, described the situation as dire, stating, "We are not just facing a crisis – we are witnessing the systematic erosion of a country’s future." This stark assessment is underscored by a comprehensive report from the UNDP and the Institute for Security Studies, which meticulously details the profound economic collapse Sudan has endured. The findings paint a grim picture, illustrating how the conflict has fundamentally reshaped the nation’s economic trajectory and its people’s livelihoods.
The Economic Devastation of Sudan’s War
The war’s economic toll on Sudan is immense, with projections indicating a loss of $18.8 billion in gross domestic product (GDP) by 2043, even under the most optimistic scenario of peace being achieved by 2026. This figure highlights the deep and lasting scars inflicted upon the nation’s economic potential. The damage extends far beyond lost economic output, fundamentally undermining the very foundations of the economy, including agriculture, industry, essential services, and state institutions.
In 2023 alone, Sudan’s GDP plunged by an estimated $6.4 billion. Renda attributed this loss to a "simultaneous collapse across all major parts of Sudan’s economy," largely driven by the widespread destruction of vital infrastructure. Sudan’s GDP in 2023 stood at $26 billion, a figure that starkly contrasts with the devastating impact of the conflict initiated by army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF leader Mohamad Hamdan Dagalo in their pursuit of power.
Infrastructure Collapse and Service Disruption
The conflict has systematically targeted and damaged critical infrastructure, leading to a catastrophic breakdown of essential services that underpin daily life and economic productivity. Farmland has been rendered unusable, irrigation systems destroyed, and transport networks severed, contributing to a significant 15 percent reduction in cultivated land. In urban centers, the obliteration of factories and the power grid has led to an estimated 90 percent collapse in industrial activity, shuttering businesses and resulting in widespread job losses.
Up to 40 percent of the nation’s power generation capacity has been lost, while crucial water infrastructure has been destroyed or commandeered, leaving communities without access to clean water and sanitation. "The destruction of infrastructure not only triggers displacement but also makes it extremely difficult for people to secure adequate housing or access basic services once displaced," Renda explained. This breakdown in water systems has also fueled outbreaks of diseases such as cholera, further straining an already overwhelmed and weakened health sector and escalating the long-term costs of recovery. The World Health Organization has documented over 200 verified attacks on healthcare facilities, with fewer than 14 percent remaining fully operational in conflict zones. Millions of children have also seen their education disrupted, with thousands of schools closed or damaged by the fighting.
Sudan’s Shattered Labor Market
Agriculture, once the bedrock of Sudan’s economy and the primary source of employment for approximately 65 percent of the workforce, has been devastated by the war. The shrinkage of cultivated land has decimated rural livelihoods, leaving many communities dependent on farming for sustenance and income without their economic base. This has critically weakened a sector that historically supported millions of families.
According to UNDP data, average incomes in Sudan have regressed to levels not seen since 1992, underscoring the profound economic shockwave and its devastating impact on households nationwide. The destruction of about 90 percent of manufacturing activity in key economic hubs has eliminated thousands of jobs. Concurrently, the informal economy, a vital survival mechanism for many Sudanese, has contracted dramatically as resource scarcity and mass displacement have forced small businesses and local markets to close.
The displacement crisis, with over 14 million people forced from their homes, has exacerbated the labor market collapse. Displaced individuals are often pushed out of both formal and informal employment, making it increasingly challenging to secure livelihoods and meet basic needs.
The War’s Impact on Sudan’s Oil Industry
Sudan’s vital oil industry has been severely impacted by the widespread instability and infrastructure damage caused by the conflict. The Khartoum refinery (Al-Jaili), which was capable of processing up to 100,000 barrels of oil per day and supplied roughly half of the country’s fuel needs, has been non-operational since July 2023. Refinery officials have reported that parts of the facility have been destroyed, necessitating complete replacement of other sections following repeated attacks in 2024 and 2025. Despite being recaptured by the army in 2025, the refinery remains out of commission.
Key oil infrastructure beyond the capital has also suffered significant damage. Pipeline routes transporting crude oil to Port Sudan have been shut down due to war-related damage. Furthermore, facilities at the Heglig oil field have been disrupted by RSF drone attacks, crippling production and export capabilities.
Soaring Prices and Economic Hardship
The collapse of the Sudanese pound and the disruption of supply chains have triggered a dramatic surge in the cost of living across Sudan. The national currency has plummeted from approximately 570 pounds to the dollar before the war to a current range of 3,500 to 3,600 pounds per dollar, according to the Sudan Central Bureau of Statistics. This devaluation has made essential imports prohibitively expensive.
Consequently, food prices have skyrocketed. In Khartoum, four pieces of bread now cost around 1,000 pounds, a price that previously bought six. In Gezira State, a 50kg (110lb) sack of sugar has increased from 155,000 to 175,000 pounds, while a bag of cement has jumped from 35,000 to 55,000 pounds, according to local traders. Household necessities have followed the same inflationary trend. In Port Sudan, a 7-litre (nearly 2-gallon) container of cooking oil has risen from 30,000 to 35,000 pounds, placing immense pressure on family budgets.
Transport and fuel costs have also seen sharp increases. Bus fares in Wad Madani have risen by approximately 50 percent, and rickshaw fares have nearly doubled in some areas. Fuel prices have exceeded 7,000 pounds per litre (1 quart) in numerous regions. Crucially, wages have failed to keep pace with inflation, leaving a significant portion of the population unable to afford basic necessities. Nearly half of Sudan’s population is currently experiencing acute food shortages, with nearly 90 percent of displaced households reporting an inability to afford sufficient food, according to the UNDP.
The Human Cost of Economic Collapse
The economic collapse in Sudan transcends mere statistics, representing a profound human tragedy. Renda poignantly illustrated this by stating, "A child born in Sudan after April 2023 enters a world where the hospital that should care for them is likely closed, the school that should educate them is probably not functioning and the family that should support them has likely been displaced." This reality translates into "lost childhoods, lost education, lost health" for an entire generation.
Currently, approximately 34 million people require humanitarian assistance, with 19 million facing acute food shortages. The human toll is already devastatingly evident. An estimated 5.6 million children have been born since the war began, many into circumstances where healthcare facilities are non-operational. Education has been severely disrupted for roughly 19 million children, with only about 20 percent of schools functioning in some areas, according to UNDP estimates.
Sudan’s Bleak Future Amidst Continued Conflict
The ongoing war casts a long and ominous shadow over Sudan’s future, diminishing the prospects of a generation whose lives are being irrevocably shaped by violence. If the conflict persists until 2030, the UNDP estimates that Sudan’s economy in 2043 will be approximately $34.5 billion smaller than it would have been without the war, and GDP per capita would drop by roughly $1,700. This prolonged conflict would push extreme poverty above 60 percent of the population, plunging an additional 34 million people into destitution.
Renda characterized the war as a "shrinking opportunity for recovery," where each month of continued conflict entrenches deeper and more irreversible damage. "Every additional month costs lives and deepens structural damage," he emphasized. The most urgent priority, he stressed, is to halt the conflict. The choices made in the present, he concluded, will ultimately determine whether Sudan’s catastrophic trajectory can still be reversed.
